"I have a nasty story to tell you," began Edward L. Miles, a professor of marine studies and public affairs at the University of Washington, as he addressed a gathering of influential scientists, scholars and policy makers on May 8 at the National Summit on Coping with Climate Change.

Miles recounted a story of how, in 2004, the President’s Commission on Ocean Policy released its report, stating that it assumed the ocean of the future will be like the ocean of the past.

One of Miles' colleagues labeled the commission's declaration a "false assumption," and started him off on his current path of inquiry into how climate change is inexorably altering the world’s oceans and the life it supports.

According to Miles, seven multiple stresses -- which include the buildup of fossil-fuel emissions in the atmosphere, significant increases in water surface and subsurface heat, and the acidification of the ocean -- are seriously impacting marine ecosystems.

Land-based pollution and overfishing, which are also contributing to this deterioration, are expected to worsen. By 2050, predictions are that the human population will increase 41%, and the number of mega-cities will increase to 32.

"These multiple stresses are important because they are an inescapable part of what we as humans and natural ecosystems face, and because they produce more than additive effects," Miles said.

"It’s the synergies that create surprises," he added. "These outcomes are derived from nonlinear processes operating on multiple scales. They lead to critical thresholds, which are points at which either the rates of change shift dramatically and/or the system shifts into a different stage. We do not know how to deal with this suite of multiple stresses simultaneously."

The most significant shifts affecting marine ecosystems are occurring from the floor of the ocean upward, beginning with the smallest life forms at the bottom of the food chain. Climate changes are reducing the suitability of habitats and altering the timing of life cycles.

An initial strategy for adapting to these changes requires inviting all stakeholders, ranging from fishing and seafood companies to banking institutions and environmental groups, to join in understanding the size and complexity of the challenges confronting the world.

"There also have to be discussions between the U.S. and Chinese governments at the very highest level," Miles stated, expressing grave concern over the magnitude and planned growth of the coal-fueled Chinese economy. "In terms of policy, we should think about grounding this set of concerns in the expanding movement for ecosystem-based management."

The National Summit on Coping with Climate Change, May 8-10, was hosted by the School of Natural Resources and Environment on behalf of the University of Michigan. The summit is part of the Clinton Global Initiative, a non-partisan catalyst for action, established by former President Bill Clinton and the William J. Clinton Foundation for the purpose of bringing together global leaders to devise and implement innovative solutions to pressing world challenges.

By Claudia Capos

For more information, contact Cynthia Shaw at

cshaw@umich.edu or call 734-763-6605.